But what if I've been to at least two of your previous weddings, and contributed to both? How's it look if you skip the funeral, then?
How does it look? A matter of appearances then? That is not an existential justification.
I can live with dirty looks.
The point is, as the article I posted above points out, that NATO without Russia has no reason.
France and Britain wanted NATO to keep the Germans down. The Germans wanted NATO to keep the Russians out. The bargain was that the Europeans would let the Americans run things to keep them in.
The Germans no longer see the need to keep the Russians out. France (or at least the establishment) no longer wants to keep the Germans down. The Brits have decided that they were right the first time and should never have guaranteed Belgium's neutrality - then they wouldn't have been stuck with the silliness in 1914. And lets not talk about the Entente Cordiale.
Meanwhile the French and the Germans (along with the Belgians) have decided to bury the hatchet (and the coal) and retake their rightful position as heirs of Clovis and reclaim Europe. But that position has always sat uneasily with the Spaniards and the Italians and even more so with the Greeks, the Slavs and the Magyars. The Slavs and the Magyars continue to feel heat from the Rus - and even if the Rus can't organize a march under the Eiffel Tower they can make life miserable for the Slavs and the Magyars - so they want help. But Clovis's kids, quite happy to have the Slavs and Magyars as buffers, as cheap labour, as cheap resources - and happy to tell them how to run their lives - have got no interest in mixing it up with the Rus.
So the Slavs and the Magyars, and the Balts, reach out to others that might be inclined to help - the Yanks and, to a lesser extent, the Brits. But they, the Yanks and Brits, are looking to Clovis's kids pony up as well and they are disinclined.
This ends with the Easterners splitting from the Westerners in order to form their own alliance with the Brits and the Yanks - and the Vikings coming along as well; with the Bourbons rediscovering the Pyrenees and Italy and Spain merging; and Clovis's kids going back to their intramural activities in their traditional cockpit - Belgium.
I also wouldn't take the rise of a new Khazaria off the table - splitting Genghis's Turks from the Rus.