Author Topic: US Sec Def sends a shot across NATO Bow.  (Read 8137 times)

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Offline milnews.ca

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Re: US Sec Def sends a shot across NATO Bow.
« Reply #25 on: February 23, 2017, 12:13:19 »
You don't come to my wedding, I don't come to your funeral.
But what if I've been to at least two of your previous weddings, and contributed to both?  How's it look if you skip the funeral, then?
“The risk of insult is the price of clarity.” -- Roy H. Williams

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Offline Chris Pook

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Re: US Sec Def sends a shot across NATO Bow.
« Reply #26 on: February 23, 2017, 12:50:11 »
But what if I've been to at least two of your previous weddings, and contributed to both?  How's it look if you skip the funeral, then?

How does it look?  A matter of appearances then? That is not an existential justification.

I can live with dirty looks. 

The point is, as the article I posted above points out, that NATO without Russia has no reason.

France and Britain wanted NATO to keep the Germans down.  The Germans wanted NATO to keep the Russians out.  The bargain was that the Europeans would let the Americans run things to keep them in.

The Germans no longer see the need to keep the Russians out.  France (or at least the establishment) no longer wants to keep the Germans down.  The Brits have decided that they were right the first time and should never have guaranteed Belgium's neutrality - then they wouldn't have been stuck with the silliness in 1914.  And lets not talk about the Entente Cordiale.

Meanwhile the French and the Germans (along with the Belgians) have decided to bury the hatchet (and the coal) and retake their rightful position as heirs of Clovis and reclaim Europe.  But that position has always sat uneasily with the Spaniards and the Italians and even more so with the Greeks, the Slavs and the Magyars.  The Slavs and the Magyars continue to feel heat from the Rus - and even if the Rus can't organize a march under the Eiffel Tower they can make life miserable for the Slavs and the Magyars - so they want help.  But Clovis's kids, quite happy to have the Slavs and Magyars as buffers, as cheap labour, as cheap resources - and happy to tell them how to run their lives - have got no interest in mixing it up with the Rus. 

So the Slavs and the Magyars, and the Balts, reach out to others that might be inclined to help - the Yanks and, to a lesser extent, the Brits.  But they, the Yanks and Brits, are looking to Clovis's kids pony up as well and they are disinclined.

This ends with the Easterners splitting from the Westerners in order to form their own alliance with the Brits and the Yanks - and the Vikings coming along as well; with the Bourbons rediscovering the Pyrenees and Italy and Spain merging; and Clovis's kids going back to their intramural activities in their traditional cockpit - Belgium.

I also wouldn't take the rise of a new Khazaria off the table - splitting Genghis's Turks from the Rus.
"Wyrd bið ful aræd"

Offline jmt18325

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Re: US Sec Def sends a shot across NATO Bow.
« Reply #27 on: February 23, 2017, 13:42:26 »
Loss of contracts, lack of support on political issues both domestic and international. Countries like Canada build credits by supporting missions with our C17/C130J fleet, that pays dividends at other tables. What the US is saying; step up or find that your not invited to various tables, your companies not invited to bid, trade negotiations suddenly become harder and even potential tariffs.

None of that has happened thus far.  I won't hold my breath for it to start. 

Canada will almost certainly increase spending to appease Trump.  It won't be $21B worth of appeasement.

Offline milnews.ca

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Re: US Sec Def sends a shot across NATO Bow.
« Reply #28 on: February 23, 2017, 13:59:49 »
How does it look?  A matter of appearances then? That is not an existential justification.

I can live with dirty looks. 
Next time you throw a party, asking for volunteers, you better not expect a great turnout, then  ;D
... NATO without Russia has no reason ...
Except when the senior partner needs help, if only to look good politically?  #Iraq

I'm not as pessimistic as you or Real Clear World that Europe's going to break down into infighting tribes - or more so than now, anyway.
“The risk of insult is the price of clarity.” -- Roy H. Williams

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Offline Chris Pook

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Re: US Sec Def sends a shot across NATO Bow.
« Reply #29 on: February 23, 2017, 14:34:24 »
Next time you throw a party, asking for volunteers, you better not expect a great turnout, then  ;D ... #Iraq


You assume that I like to throw parties.  Personally I generally prefer my own company.  ;)

With respect to Europe I am of the opinion, as somebody once said, that culture matters.  And Europe is running into the same problem as the UN, the League of Nations before it and the Holy Roman Empire and India and China.  Too many voices.

One city, with its houses/families/clans, can accumulate enough wealth that for a while it can attract enough sycophants and cow enough belligerents so as to establish its empire over surrounding turf.  But eventually it reaches its Limes.  And starts to discover that it can spread no farther, it can hire no more troops and its sycophants desert it.  But.... the people in their villages, in their clans, abide.  And they abide in their valleys and behind their rivers with their common languages and their common appreciation of the universe .... regardless of the empire of the day.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Griko_people

When did the Romans clear the Greeks from Italy? Or was it the Lombards that did that? Or the Franks?  The Normans?
"Wyrd bið ful aræd"

Offline milnews.ca

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Re: US Sec Def sends a shot across NATO Bow.
« Reply #30 on: February 23, 2017, 15:48:08 »
You assume that I like to throw parties.  Personally I generally prefer my own company.  ;)
If that's the case, unlike countries, all fair ball  ;D
When did the Romans clear the Greeks from Italy? Or was it the Lombards that did that? Or the Franks?  The Normans?
Yes  ;D
“The risk of insult is the price of clarity.” -- Roy H. Williams

The words I share here are my own, not those of anyone else or anybody I may be affiliated with.

Tony Prudori
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Offline Chris Pook

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Re: US Sec Def sends a shot across NATO Bow.
« Reply #31 on: February 23, 2017, 15:56:14 »
When did the Romans clear the Greeks from Italy? Or was it the Lombards that did that? Or the Franks?  The Normans?

Yes  ;D

And still, they speak Greek.  Tis a puzzlement.   ;D
"Wyrd bið ful aræd"

Offline Underway

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Re: US Sec Def sends a shot across NATO Bow.
« Reply #32 on: February 23, 2017, 16:35:06 »
Does anyone think that the attempted NATO expansion into Ukraine and Georgia was an attempt to poke the Russian bear into a reaction?  Anyone with half a brain would have realized that that expansion would have caused Putin to react similarly to Kennedy in the Cuban Missile Crisis.  From Russian psychology it's an existential threat.  Probably prescribes more intelligence to NATO than they seem to be burdened with though...

Offline jollyjacktar

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Re: US Sec Def sends a shot across NATO Bow.
« Reply #33 on: February 23, 2017, 16:53:31 »
Well at the moment there is no talk of a bigger budget but cutbacks.  We'll see what comes before April but for the time being things are gloomy.

Offline Colin P

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Re: US Sec Def sends a shot across NATO Bow.
« Reply #34 on: February 23, 2017, 17:02:22 »
The Navy needs to see what they can milk out of the Ocean Protection Program (Anti-ship missiles for environmental protection)  [:D

Offline jmt18325

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Re: US Sec Def sends a shot across NATO Bow.
« Reply #35 on: February 23, 2017, 18:18:30 »
Well at the moment there is no talk of a bigger budget but cutbacks.  We'll see what comes before April but for the time being things are gloomy.

There's no chance of budget cuts in the current climate.  It's much more likely that the Liberals will work to reach the 20% spending on new equipment.  That would mean about $1 - 2B per year.

Offline Oldgateboatdriver

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Re: US Sec Def sends a shot across NATO Bow.
« Reply #36 on: February 23, 2017, 18:33:54 »
The Navy needs to see what they can milk out of the Ocean Protection Program (Anti-ship missiles for environmental protection)  [:D

Yep! Pollute our waters ... and we guarantee you won't do it again.  :nod:

Offline jollyjacktar

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Re: US Sec Def sends a shot across NATO Bow.
« Reply #37 on: February 23, 2017, 22:11:45 »
There's no chance of budget cuts in the current climate.  It's much more likely that the Liberals will work to reach the 20% spending on new equipment.  That would mean about $1 - 2B per year.

Be that as it may, we're still being told to work with a massive reduction in funds this coming fiscal year.   I won't say how much but it's Trump huge.

Offline YZT580

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Re: US Sec Def sends a shot across NATO Bow.
« Reply #38 on: February 23, 2017, 22:21:06 »
Chris that was one hell of a great explanation

Offline jmt18325

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Re: US Sec Def sends a shot across NATO Bow.
« Reply #39 on: February 24, 2017, 01:01:40 »
Be that as it may, we're still being told to work with a massive reduction in funds this coming fiscal year.   

I'm not saying you're wrong, but it's unlikely that many people would know what's actually coming at this point.

Offline Colin P

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Re: US Sec Def sends a shot across NATO Bow.
« Reply #40 on: February 24, 2017, 10:23:35 »
The Ocean Protection Program is the gongshow you want to be on if your looking for money.

Offline Humphrey Bogart

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Re: US Sec Def sends a shot across NATO Bow.
« Reply #41 on: February 24, 2017, 11:33:35 »
I'm not saying you're wrong, but it's unlikely that many people would know what's actually coming at this point.

Are you a politician?  You should be one, awesome waffle!

"I'm not saying your wrong"?  So are you saying he's right?

"but it's unlikely that many people would know what's actually coming at this point."

What's the point of this statement? 

Offline NavyShooter

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Re: US Sec Def sends a shot across NATO Bow.
« Reply #42 on: February 24, 2017, 12:00:11 »
The point is to add fluff and post count to something that jmt, clearly, has no clue about....again.

I'm not going to say that the reductions are 'trump-like' in proportion, but one of the numbers I've heard bandied about is in the hundreds....of millions.  I'm also currently in the logistics chain, and note the number of items 'accumulating' in the Repairable Reserve seems to be climbing, pending new FY fund availability, and the fact that a 5 day TD request has to be presented to the Admiral for approval speaks to the lack of funds available for day-to-day operations.

There are other indicators that you'll hear of, but I'm suspicious that 'trump-like' will be all too close to the truth.

I'm actually sitting back and waiting for the fiscal 'blow out' when the various PSAC unions finally settle for their (3+ year past due) pay raises, and the GOC has to pay out the 3+ years worth of owed back-pay to both PSAC and the Military.  That's about the time that someone's going to remember that employees are expensive, and SWE can be capped just like was done back in the 90's....no pay-raise unless promoted.  I'm thinking that with the next budget, we'll see some form of austerity factor like that being back-channeled out as a 'informed source rumor' then it'll hit us right in the wallets in the 2018 budget, especially when the cost of the back-pay and raises is floated as justification to the media.

Insert disclaimer statement here....

:panzer:

Offline jmt18325

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Re: US Sec Def sends a shot across NATO Bow.
« Reply #43 on: February 24, 2017, 12:49:55 »
Are you a politician?  You should be one, awesome waffle!

"I'm not saying your wrong"?  So are you saying he's right?

I can't say that either, as I don't know the answer.

Quote
"but it's unlikely that many people would know what's actually coming at this point."

The point of this statement - the people telling him that would have as much idea as me at this point.

Offline jmt18325

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Re: US Sec Def sends a shot across NATO Bow.
« Reply #44 on: February 24, 2017, 12:52:38 »
The point is to add fluff and post count to something that jmt, clearly, has no clue about....again.

I'm not going to say that the reductions are 'trump-like' in proportion, but one of the numbers I've heard bandied about is in the hundreds....of millions. 

At this point in time, no one outside of a few key people in Finance and the PMO would have any idea what the 2017-2018 budget will hold.  The signals from the Minister of Defence have indicated a larger budget, but I question if even he would know that at this point.

As usual, some of you have to resort to personal attacks.  I don't really care.  It's not my job to impress you.  Lets just say that it's also a good thing that it's not your job to impress me.

Offline Good2Golf

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Re: US Sec Def sends a shot across NATO Bow.
« Reply #45 on: February 24, 2017, 13:41:25 »
At this point in time, no one outside of a few key people in Finance and the PMO would have any idea what the 2017-2018 budget will hold.  The signals from the Minister of Defence have indicated a larger budget, but I question if even he would know that at this point.

As usual, some of you have to resort to personal attacks.  I don't really care.  It's not my job to impress you.  Lets just say that it's also a good thing that it's not your job to impress me.

Not so.  The Main Estimates for 2017/2018 are out: https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/canada/tbs-sct/migration/hgw-cgf/finances/pgs-pdg/gepme-pdgbpd/20172018/me-bpd-eng.pdf

In short, DND's allocation for 2017/2018 is $18,662,067,234. 

DND's allocation in the 2016/2017 Main Estimates was $18,640,268,933 and, with Supplemental Estimates A, B and (yet to be reconciled) C, rose to $18,908,344,554.

So...2017/2018 will see DND start out with ($268,075,621) less than 2016/2017 was allocated.  More specifically, the Vote 5 (Capital acquisitions monies) are down ~$293M from 2016/2017, which means that ALL the reductions from 2016/2017 to 2017/2018 came from Equipment, and then some.

To quote the Main Estimates document itself (page 123):
Quote
Major factors contributing to the net decrease in authorities include:
• A decrease in spending on major capital equipment and infrastructure projects to align financial resources with current project acquisition
timelines. This funding includes investments in major capital projects such as Arctic Offshore Patrol Ships, and the Halifax Class
Modernization and Frigate Life Extension; and
• A decrease in incremental funding related to fleet maintenance. The fleet maintenance of major equipment has been maintained or
increased using the annual escalator on defence spending; and
• A decrease in funding to build and renew infrastructure at Canadian Armed Forces and other defence properties as announced in Budget
2014 as part of Federal Infrastructure Investment Plan due to project completion.
   

Supps A better be REALLY, REALLY BIG! :nod:


In other news...Mr. Pook, in your quote...
Meanwhile - this article, in my opinion, pretty much sums up the Euro situation.
http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2017/02/22/nato_the_middle_east_and_eastern_europe.html

...Mr. Friedman wasn't doing badly until he said...

Quote
It is vital to constantly point out that NATO is not a political framework where discussions take place but a military alliance that rests on military goals and resources. It is about soldiers and sailors, and if the issues being faced do not involve these, then NATO has no use. Some other sort of institution may be required to address these issues instead.

Oopsies...

To quote from a source (yes, NATO itself): http://www.nato.int/nato-welcome/index.html#basic
Quote

A political and military Alliance

NATO’s essential purpose is to safeguard the freedom and security of its members through political and military means.

POLITICAL - NATO promotes democratic values and encourages consultation and cooperation on defence and security issues to build trust and, in the long run, prevent conflict.

MILITARY - NATO is committed to the peaceful resolution of disputes. If diplomatic efforts fail, it has the military capacity needed to undertake crisis-management operations. These are carried out under Article 5 of the Washington Treaty - NATO’s founding treaty - or under a UN mandate, alone or in cooperation with other countries and international organizations.

:2c:

Regards
G2G
« Last Edit: February 24, 2017, 13:49:23 by Good2Golf »

Offline jmt18325

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Re: US Sec Def sends a shot across NATO Bow.
« Reply #46 on: February 24, 2017, 13:52:55 »
The main estimates are based on the numbers from the 2016-2017 budget, and do not necessarily have anything to do with what will be spent in the 2017-2018 fiscal year.  The budget is a closely guarded secret.

Offline Loachman

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Re: US Sec Def sends a shot across NATO Bow.
« Reply #47 on: February 24, 2017, 13:56:34 »
It's not my job to impress you.

You may enjoy some optimism, then, for your continued employment.

Offline Good2Golf

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Re: US Sec Def sends a shot across NATO Bow.
« Reply #48 on: February 24, 2017, 13:56:51 »
The main estimates are based on the numbers from the 2016-2017 budget, and do not necessarily have anything to do with what will be spent in the 2017-2018 fiscal year.  The budget is a closely guarded secret.

The Main Estimates have reliably been quite close to what unfolded in the budgets.  That said, I suspect a few folks in 90 Elgin are going to be having a few late nights in the coming weeks.

Regards
G2G

Offline Oldgateboatdriver

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Re: US Sec Def sends a shot across NATO Bow.
« Reply #49 on: February 24, 2017, 14:14:16 »
Actually, the budgets are based on the duly voted main estimates, where departmental spending is concerned.

What is closely guarded in the budget is never how much money each department will get for its ongoing operations. What is secret is any changes to fiscal laws, any economic intervention measure in the market generally and any new program the government intends to introduce that was not existing. These are kept secret because otherwise, people with foreknowledge could act in advance of everybody else and get an unfair economic advantage.

The actual day-to-day budget of the government for its operation is no big deal, and actually does not have any potential effect on the markets.