Author Topic: Liberal Party of Canada Leadership  (Read 323684 times)

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Offline Thucydides

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Re: Liberal Party of Canada Leadership
« Reply #25 on: September 28, 2012, 10:41:54 »
[Governor Carney strikes me as being a liberal, not a Liberal.

Wouldn't that be hysterical; Mark Carney throws his hat in the ring post 2015 to replace Stephen Harper as leader of the CPC. The sound of jaws hitting the floor in Liberal PArty HQ would be audible all across Canada....
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Offline GAP

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Re: Liberal Party of Canada Leadership
« Reply #26 on: September 28, 2012, 10:53:08 »
And....he would probably win the leadership race, if not the next election...
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Offline jollyjacktar

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Re: Liberal Party of Canada Leadership
« Reply #27 on: September 28, 2012, 11:22:49 »

Offline bridges

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Re: Liberal Party of Canada Leadership
« Reply #28 on: September 28, 2012, 11:26:38 »
Chronicle Herald Trudeau Cartoon

Link no worky    :(


Edit:  but it can be seen on the main page here:  http://thechronicleherald.ca/
The first of many, no doubt.  Thanks for the heads-up, jollyjacktar.
"Only a person of liberal mind is entitled to exercise coercion over others in a society of free men."   -General Sir John Winthrop Hackett, GCB, CBE, DSO & Bar, MC

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Re: Liberal Party of Canada Leadership
« Reply #29 on: September 28, 2012, 11:39:19 »
And the National Post, after publishing the results of a poll showing JC as the answer to the Grits' prayers, now posts an oped piece that suggests choosing him would be a triumph of fluff over substence. It is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provision of the Copyright  Act.

Full Comment Kelly McParland: Liberals transform themselves into the Lindsay Lohan party

Kelly McParland | Sep 28, 2012 10:30 AM ET | Last Updated: Sep 28, 2012 11:20 AM ET

Sober, serious-minded Liberals — surely there are some  — must look at their party sometimes and wonder if it will ever learn. After running the country  for most of the 20th century it’s morphing into the Lindsay Lohan of Canadian politics, constantly vowing to clean up its act, only to wake up with a headache and another charge on its rap sheet. The Liberals aren’t into drugs that I know of, but after three failed marriages, a stint in rehab and with its overall health in decline, it pledged to undertake a serious effort to re-establish itself as a mature, dependable party. Instead it’s plunging shamelessly into an affair with the handsome young thing with the dynamite hair.

Well, it’s a grown-up party that should know better, so all we can do is sit back and watch how it turns out. Maybe Justin Trudeau won’t be Maygan Sensenberger to the Liberals’ Rod Zimmer. Maybe there’s a hidden depth beneath that glib exterior. Maybe he’s more mature than the MP with the Johnny Depp moustache who called the environment minister a “piece of crap” during a heated moment in the House of Commons, and suggested that if Canada’s going to go the way of  Stephen Harper “maybe I would think about making Quebec a country.”

It’s possible, but so far we just don’t know. Which is what’s so disheartening about the Liberals’ latest fling. Most of them have no idea what Justin is about. They can’t know, because other than a few idealistic opinions on youth and the environment, he’s said very little about any of the things that are important to the country. Does he have a view on the economy, on job creation, on Israel or Syria or Iran, on U.S. relations or trade with China, on health care or infrastructure, or when and under what conditions to deploy the armed forces?

Beats me. If he has them he’s not sharing them, judging by his parliamentary web site (Justin.ca. How’d he beat the Bieber to that one?). His three comments on the economy consist of brief snippets straight out of party headquarters to the effect that Stephen Harper wants to give tax breaks to the rich while ordinary Canadians struggle. His list of “speeches” in the House stop at March 2011. He seems to have thought the Harmonized Sales Tax was a good idea, suggesting it would ensure “economic recovery and growth will begin sooner as opposed to later.” (Which is at least a step up from Jean Chretien, who vowed to repeal its predecessor). Since being named critic for Youth, Post-Secondary Education, and Amateur Sport he’s posted three statements, one wishing everyone a Happy Canada Day, and one each on the Olympics and Paralympics.

Pretty thin, it would seem, but maybe it’s enough for the Liberals. Trudeau hasn’t even confirmed his run yet, and already a National Post poll suggests he’d be prime minister on Monday if an election were held today. It would take a party with more backbone than the Liberals have shown in many a year to turn up their nose at that.

Yet you have to wonder. Here’s a party that, after its most recent drubbing, swore on Laurier’s grave that it would be thinking long and deep about its place in the world, what it stands for and what it believes, and wouldn’t be coming back to Canadians for their vote until it had some good solid answers, and policies to go along with them. Now Justin wiggles by and they’re begging shamelessly for a kiss. Just consider what it all says about them:

1. After the Ignatieff debacle they swore off coronations, pledging they’d learned their lesson. Now they’re ready to hand Justin the crown the moment he asks for it.

2. Rather than sort out a solid package of policies and principles, they’re happy to pick the leader first and agree to believe whatever he believes. In Justin’s case this is particularly risky – you could even say foolhardy – given how few utterances he has made on any of the issues.

3. Admittedly the Liberals don’t have the bench strength they once enjoyed, but they’re not totally without alternatives. While the party is throwing itself at Justin, it’s ignoring the lonely astronaut in the corner. Marc Garneau – who may or may not run now that Trudeau is in the race – is an engineer, a rocket scientist, boasts a degree in electrical engineering from the Imperial College of Science and Technology in London, and was the first Canadian in space. Justin Trudeau is a dabbler – he dabbled in teaching, dabbled in the arts, dabbled in acting, dabbled in activism. Now he’s dabbling in politics. Which of these two men would you rather have by your side in a crisis?

4. Once again the party is betting on the star candidate, the rock star, the name that will get a few fast headlines. Sound familiar? Michael Ignatieff at least had credentials – intellectual, author, historian, Harvard professor. Yet couldn’t pull it off. Is charisma and great hair enough of a substitute.

5. If the party really thought he was that hot a commodity, don’t you think he’d have got a weightier portfolio than critic for Youth, Post-Secondary Education, and Amateur Sport?

When Pierre Trudeau won the leadership he defeated an impressive pool of talent: Robert Winters, Paul Martin, John Turner, Allan MacEachen. A party that can boast that much strength is one that’s ready for government. Today’s Liberals are a sorry memory of that day, yet seem disinclined, despite all their pledges otherwise, to re-build the foundations needed for a solid future.  They’re going with a paint job and some bright lights to disguise the decay. It’s the Lindsay Lohan approach.


Offline Journeyman

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Re: Liberal Party of Canada Leadership
« Reply #30 on: September 28, 2012, 11:41:25 »
And the National Post, after publishing the results of a poll showing JC as the answer to the Grits' prayers...
Interesting typo...or are you saying that we're going to hell in a handbasket?   ;D 
I even read works I disagree with;  life outside  an ideological echo chamber.

Offline jollyjacktar

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Re: Liberal Party of Canada Leadership
« Reply #31 on: September 28, 2012, 11:42:55 »
Link no worky    :(


Edit:  but it can be seen on the main page here:  http://thechronicleherald.ca/
The first of many, no doubt.  Thanks for the heads-up, jollyjacktar.
:facepalm: sorry bout dat.

Offline bridges

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Re: Liberal Party of Canada Leadership
« Reply #32 on: September 28, 2012, 11:50:39 »

"...an affair with the handsome young thing with the dynamite hair."

"Now Justin wiggles by and they’re begging shamelessly for a kiss."

"Is charisma and great hair enough of a substitute."

Well now, just because he's sexy and has great hair doesn't mean he wouldn't make a good leader!   ;)   Some columnists protest too much, methinks...
"Only a person of liberal mind is entitled to exercise coercion over others in a society of free men."   -General Sir John Winthrop Hackett, GCB, CBE, DSO & Bar, MC

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Re: Liberal Party of Canada Leadership
« Reply #33 on: September 28, 2012, 12:54:31 »
My preferred outcome for 2015 is a NDP majority. It will be painful but it will ensure Canadians never think of the NDP again.

But, since I have to manage my expectations, Justin Trudeau as PM ail do just fine. It's going to hurt for a bit but the hangover the average Canadian idiot voter will have will worth it for the entertainment value alone.

Online MJP

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Re: Liberal Party of Canada Leadership
« Reply #34 on: September 28, 2012, 13:07:19 »
My preferred outcome for 2015 is a NDP majority. It will be painful but it will ensure Canadians never think of the NDP again.

You sir are a truly evil man...I like it.
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Offline GAP

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Re: Liberal Party of Canada Leadership
« Reply #35 on: September 28, 2012, 13:30:32 »
My preferred outcome for 2015 is a NDP majority. It will be painful but it will ensure Canadians never think of the NDP again.

But, since I have to manage my expectations, Justin Trudeau as PM ail do just fine. It's going to hurt for a bit but the hangover the average Canadian idiot voter will have will worth it for the entertainment value alone.

Awh....fuddle duddle......
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Offline bridges

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Re: Liberal Party of Canada Leadership
« Reply #36 on: September 28, 2012, 14:08:44 »
It's going to hurt for a bit but the hangover the average Canadian idiot voter will have will worth it for the entertainment value alone.

My thoughts exactly - about Toronto.    ;)
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Offline ModlrMike

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Re: Liberal Party of Canada Leadership
« Reply #37 on: September 28, 2012, 15:57:31 »
Wouldn't that be hysterical; Mark Carney throws his hat in the ring post 2015 to replace Stephen Harper as leader of the CPC. The sound of jaws hitting the floor in Liberal PArty HQ would be audible all across Canada....

Wasn't there speculation that he would run for the Torries in the recent past?
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Re: Liberal Party of Canada Leadership
« Reply #38 on: September 29, 2012, 06:47:16 »
And Andrew Coyne takes aim at the media and the public reaction to the story that Justin Trudeau is going to run for the leadership. The column is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provision of the Copyright Act.

The son is not the father and the future is not buried in the past

Andrew Coyne | Sep 28, 2012 8:11 PM ET | Last Updated: Sep 28, 2012 9:05 PM ET

What is Justin Trudeau’s position on whether Canada should contribute to an international stabilization fund for the purpose of resolving the euro crisis? Does he agree that any final status settlement in the Middle East should be based on 1967 borders? How would he amend, if at all, the “net benefit” test currently applied to foreign takeovers in Canada?

Which would he say was the highest priority at the moment, reducing the deficit to reassure financial markets, or increasing the deficit to provide fiscal stimulus? Does he believe Canada’s defence needs require a fifth generation fighter jet, such as the F-35, with stealth capacity suitable for deep strikes into enemy territory, or would he favour a less expensive fighter, designed for patrolling Canadian airspace? Or should we replace manned fighters with drones?

To ask these questions is to answer them: Nobody knows. I don’t know what Trudeau thinks on these issues, and neither do you. Nor do the media, nor the Liberal party, nor, I’m guessing, Justin himself. It isn’t just that he has never, so far as I am aware, made any significant public statement on any of them — or on any others, outside of Quebec and a few personal hobbyhorses. It’s that it’s difficult even to imagine him doing so.

Perhaps I’m being unfair. Perhaps there are hidden depths to Justin, waiting to be revealed. The point is, we don’t know — as indeed we know very little about him generally, notwithstanding his lifelong celebrity. We don’t know a great deal about his character or judgment — though what glimpses we have been given raise doubts about both: his bizarre objections to a government document’s description of female genital mutilation as a “barbaric” practice; his scatology in Parliament; his musings that a Canada led by Stephen Harper might cause him to support the separation of Quebec, and his petulant performance when called out on it.

There is a strong whiff of nostalgia in the air just now. A lot of people who should know better seem to have persuaded themselves that it is 1968 all over again
We have no idea what kind of leader he would make for the Liberal party. We don’t know what his plans are to rebuild the party, or what direction he would take it, or where he would concentrate its meagre resources. We have a hint of his tenacity — winning the nomination and then the election in Papineau, beating Senator Patrick Brazeau in a boxing match — but we don’t know whether he has what it takes generally to be a leader: whether he can build a team, inspire their loyalty, betray it when he has to. We know nothing of his strategic sense, his ability to spot a political opening, exploit an opponent’s weakness, or strike a prudent compromise.

What we do know is that he has very little experience of the kind that would prepare him for such a job. Comparisons to his father, elected leader after just three years in Parliament, are fatuous: Pierre Trudeau had been minister of justice, and before that a professor of law and an intellectual force in Quebec politics for more than decade. Justin has been a high school teacher.

But none of this matters, apparently. All that we need to know is that he has a famous name, a pretty face and 150,000 Twitter followers. On that, and on that alone, the media have declared him the winner of a leadership race that has not yet even formally begun, and will not be decided until April. And on that same slim basis, a good many Liberals seem prepared to hand him the crown. Imagine if the Democratic Party had nominated John-John for president, and you have a close parallel. Now imagine they had done so without even knowing who else was in the race.

Perhaps there are hidden depths to Justin, waiting to be revealed. The point is, we don’t know
I cannot believe the Liberal party would be so rash. I do not mean that he will not win. I do not even mean that he should not win. Perhaps, as I say, he will surprise us, displaying a political shrewdness, and an emotional maturity, we had not previously suspected. But he cannot do so if he is not put to the test of a vigorous campaign. For the Liberal party to do otherwise, for it to throw itself at his feet without the merest vetting, would confirm the worst fears about the party: that it had no raison d’etre, no ideals or ambitions, but had descended into little more than a personality cult. Far from building for the long term, it would have succumbed to the pressure to produce short-term results, with the probable consequence of neither.

There is a strong whiff of nostalgia in the air just now. A lot of people who should know better seem to have persuaded themselves that it is 1968 all over again. Among other things, that’s unfair to Justin, who is his own man and who is running, I am sure, for the best of reasons, but on whom many others seem to want to project their own fantasies. But the son is not the father, and the future is not buried in the past.

POSTSCRIPT: As many readers will know, I am the cousin of Deborah Coyne, who is also a candidate for Liberal leader. I do not believe that should have any influence on my assessments of the race or the candidates. But having put the matter on the public record, I will leave you to form your own judgment.

Offline E.R. Campbell

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Re: Liberal Party of Canada Leadership
« Reply #39 on: September 29, 2012, 15:45:29 »
Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, is a somewhat fawning survey of Justin Trudea:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/justin-trudeaus-success-grounded-in-hard-work/article4576484/
Quote
Justin Trudeau’s success grounded in hard work

INGRID PERITZ AND DANIEL LEBLANC
MONTREAL and OTTAWA — The Globe and Mail

Published Saturday, Sep. 29 2012

Justin Trudeau has spent his short political life trying to prove to skeptics that he’s more than a kid trading on one of the most famous names in Canadian politics. And the place where he first had to prove it is a rough-and-tumble district in north-central Montreal.

Papineau is a federal riding of halal butchers and Haitian grocers, brick triplexes and Quebec designer boutiques, and it is where Mr. Trudeau first landed to face the uphill task of beating the incumbent Bloc Québécois in 2008.

In four years, he won the riding twice and quietly wooed its community stakeholders, turning into a fixture at tree-plantings and volunteer-appreciation nights, along with the unglamorous task of policy round tables.

“He works very hard,” said Denis Sirois, head of a community economic-development non-profit in the riding. “He’s not just showing up at cocktails, he’s at community meetings. He understands the realities of the district and makes concrete proposals.”

“I’ve been pleasantly surprised,” added Marcelle Bastien, a sovereigntist who heads a popular community recreation centre and is no fan of the federal Liberals. “I couldn’t name you a single MP [for the riding] who came before Justin Trudeau. He’s present. He’s a good MP.”

His groundwork in the riding established a pattern that has turned into a winning formula for the 40-year-old Mr. Trudeau: Keep expectations low, and when no one’s watching, break a sweat. It helped him beat the heavily favoured Senator Patrick Brazeau in a charity boxing match this year. And now, it could serve him in his anticipated bid for the federal Liberal leadership.

The Trudeau name can be both a boon and a burden in Quebec, where the legacy of former prime minister Pierre Trudeau remains highly controversial. But after two terms as an MP, Justin Trudeau has managed to exit from under the formidable shadow of his father, observers say.

“He’s been able to forge his own personality,” Mr. Sirois said. “When people talk about him now, they talk about Justin Trudeau, not his famous father.”

Mr. Trudeau’s two election victories won him the praise on Friday of former party leader Jean Chrétien, who called him a “good candidate” after an Order of Canada ceremony.

“He’s been elected twice so far. It’s one more time than his father when he became the leader,” Mr. Chrétien said.

In fact, key members of Justin Trudeau’s team say that the appropriate lineage to consider in terms of his political chops comes from his mother’s side. Margaret Trudeau’s father was James Sinclair, a Scottish-born politician who represented a B.C. riding for nearly two decades in the House of Commons.

Mr. Sinclair was known for his organizational strength, while Pierre Trudeau entered the House as an intellectual. “His father was handed the safest seat in the country, made attorney-general and became prime minister three years later,” a senior member of Mr. Trudeau’s team said.

On the other hand, Justin Trudeau faced a real battle before he could lay claim to his own Montreal riding.

“Justin’s B.C., Scottish-Canadian, Sinclair roots are clearly demonstrated in his activities as an MP in Papineau, his hard work on the ground, his ability to organize, pull together a team and, frankly, to win and then hold a riding in the most difficult election that the Liberal Party has ever faced,” the organizer said.

Papineau is a key part of Justin Trudeau’s story. When Mr. Trudeau was mulling a jump into federal politics in 2007, at the age of 35, speculation centred around the riding of Outremont, which had been vacated by former transport minister Jean Lapierre. While Outremont is now in the hands of NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair, it was seen at the time as a Liberal enclave and a safe seat for Mr. Trudeau. However, then-leader Stéphane Dion refused to appoint Mr. Trudeau as the Liberal candidate in the riding, forcing him to run for the party’s nomination in Papineau, then in the hands of the Bloc Québécois. Mr. Trudeau insisted at the time that the choice was his, that Papineau was a risk that he wanted to take.

“I wanted to fight for it. I’m not the kind of person who enjoys getting handed things, despite what the newspapers like to say,” he said.

The riding is heavily multicultural; nearly half the residents have neither French nor English as their mother tongue, and one-third are visible minorities. Anglophones represent a small fraction of the riding, with francophones making up 46 per cent. Mr. Trudeau’s opponents argue that his grasp of Papineau is fragile, hinging not on francophone voters that make up the majority of ridings in Quebec, but rather on immigrant communities that loved his father.

Hostility toward Pierre Trudeau is very much alive among francophone voters in the district, underscoring the challenge in rebuilding the shattered Liberal Party in Quebec under a Trudeau leadership. Many voters still evoke the senior Trudeau’s unilateral repatriation of the constitution and his firm stand against Quebec nationalism.

“Pierre Trudeau spit on Quebeckers,” hair-cutter Sylvie Tremblay said in a barber shop just a block from Mr. Trudeau’s riding office. She feels the younger Mr. Trudeau has done nothing to prove himself. “He’s cute. He looks good on his campaign posters. But he wants to be prime minister, and he’s never even been a government minister.”

Mr. Trudeau’s experience in life and politics includes much time away from his current bases in Montreal and Ottawa. After graduating from McGill University, he settled in Vancouver, where he was a teacher at West Point Grey Academy. B.C. remains a key element of his political arsenal, a western province where the Liberal Party has room to grow, and the site of the controversial Northern Gateway pipeline that is staunchly opposed by one of his top aides, WWF Canada head Gerald Butts.

Mr. Trudeau is scheduled to formally announce his candidacy in his Quebec riding on Tuesday, but he will quickly start crisscrossing the country. The planned events in Richmond, B.C., on Wednesday and the following day in Mississauga, Ont., are designed to showcase his pan-Canadian appeal and his organizational strength in the country’s three biggest provinces.

Mr. Trudeau is travelling over his first three days in multicultural cities, hoping to regain key constituencies that the Liberals have lost to the Conservatives. There is no doubt that Mr. Trudeau knows how to handle himself in front of the cameras, but Liberals across Canada are waiting to see what he has to say to them.


I think that whoever eventually becomes Liberal leader (I am fairly sure it will be a French-Canadian) will, as many pundits say, find that the road to power leads through Quebec which means that the first enemy is the NDP, not the Conservatives. But, in order to appeal to Quebecers the conventional wisdom is that the Liberal Party of Canada must adopt a leftish economic policy which will not play well in "New Canada," West of the Ottawa River.

In the next election 225 of 338 seats will be West of the Ottawa River (42+34+14+14+121) "Old Canada," East of the Ottawa River will have only 113, 78 of them in Quebec; a majority requires 169 seats. It is, theoretically, possible to win a majority without having a single seat anywhere East of Ontario ~ very, very hard but mathematically possible. Give the Tories 10 safe seats in "Old Canada," then they need only 159 of the 225 in "New Canada," say 25 in BC, 32 in AB, 13 in SK, 11 in MB and 78 in ON; they currently have 21 in BC, 27 in AB, 13 in SK, 11 in MB and 73 in ON so the required gains are 4 of 8 new seats in BC, 5 of the 6 new seats in AB, no changes in SK and in MB and just 5 of the 15 new seats in ON. That result is clearly attainable - make it a bit easier and give the Tories 15 of the 113 seats in "Old Canada" and it becomes quite achievable. That being the case, the question becomes: can the new Liberal leader displace Mulcair and the NDP and return to Stornoway, which is a reasonable "intermediate objective?"

How to beat Mulcair? Two choices:

1. Attack his left wing/social democrat policies as being bad for Canada ~ this will not appeal to Quebec voters so the "intermediate objective" is unlikely to be attained; or

2. Go father left than the NDP and appeal to Quebec nationalism ~ this will not appeal to "New Canada," making the "final objective" (24 Sussex Drive in 2019) harder to achieve.

Rock, meet Hard Place.

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Offline ballz

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Re: Liberal Party of Canada Leadership
« Reply #40 on: September 29, 2012, 16:40:39 »
What about a third option ... moving further right on economics / fiscal policies, while remaining left / progressive on social issues ... in other words, the new Progressive Conservatives.

Not many people in Canada are on board with the social policies of the Conservative Party, and they know it, that's why they always try and focus everything on the economy, and deflect most attention away from social issues.
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Offline E.R. Campbell

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Re: Liberal Party of Canada Leadership
« Reply #41 on: September 29, 2012, 16:57:38 »
What about a third option ... moving further right on economics / fiscal policies, while remaining left / progressive on social issues ... in other words, the new Progressive Conservatives.

Not many people in Canada are on board with the social policies of the Conservative Party, and they know it, that's why they always try and focus everything on the economy, and deflect most attention away from social issues.


I don't agree with any of your points.

First: the Stephen Harper Conservatives are occupying the "right on economics" and staking out the "centre" on social issues.

Second: many, many people in Canada are "on board" with the Tory social policies. But, most Canadians are not left or progressive on social issues; they are looking for the "centre" that the Conservatives are trying to define. There is, certainly, a progressive wing but it already belongs to the NDP. There are, broadly, two kinds of social conservatives in Canada: the religious right which is, largely in rural Canada and which does have some choices but, broadly, supports the Conservatives; and the New Canadians who have some quite conservative values on issues which do not, in most ways, coincide, at all, with the religious right. They appear, to me, to have moved into the Conservative camp. The social battleground is the "centre."

Third: the reason Prime Minister Harper focuses "everything" on the economy is because it is the ONLY issue that really matters right now; to focus his and his party's attention anywhere else would be irresponsible.
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Offline Bird_Gunner45

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Re: Liberal Party of Canada Leadership
« Reply #42 on: September 29, 2012, 17:41:40 »

Not many people in Canada are on board with the social policies of the Conservative Party, and they know it, that's why they always try and focus everything on the economy, and deflect most attention away from social issues.

Last I checked, the key social issues which define us as Canadians (in the sense that they are different from the US) such as abortion, health care, gay marriage, etc weren't as clear cut as it is made to seem by the media... I may be quoting old data, but abortion and gay marriage were almost a 50/50 split for both in terms of actual support. 

That said, social issues such as the ones mentioned above, are, have been, and will continue to be window dressing and university level debating points that have no real bearing on the future... economics, as Mr. Campbell notes, is the only key issue of any real value, WAS the only issue of any value during the last several elections, and will continue to be the only issue of value. At the end people vote with the wallets unless times are VERY good   

Offline Good2Golf

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Re: Liberal Party of Canada Leadership
« Reply #43 on: September 29, 2012, 20:53:30 »
Well, since John Manley is out of the picture and Denis Codere and Dominic Leblanc would be sound but unpopular choices, it will be between Trudeau and Garneau.  Frankley, Garneau is a little too condescending, so I say "le Dauphin" should give it a go...

Offline Retired AF Guy

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Re: Liberal Party of Canada Leadership
« Reply #44 on: September 29, 2012, 22:08:45 »
Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, is a somewhat fawning survey of Justin Trudea:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/justin-trudeaus-success-grounded-in-hard-work/article4576484/

I think that whoever eventually becomes Liberal leader (I am fairly sure it will be a French-Canadian) will, as many pundits say, find that the road to power leads through Quebec which means that the first enemy is the NDP, not the Conservatives. But, in order to appeal to Quebecers the conventional wisdom is that the Liberal Party of Canada must adopt a leftish economic policy which will not play well in "New Canada," West of the Ottawa River.

In the next election 225 of 338 seats will be West of the Ottawa River (42+34+14+14+121) "Old Canada," East of the Ottawa River will have only 113, 78 of them in Quebec; a majority requires 169 seats. It is, theoretically, possible to win a majority without having a single seat anywhere East of Ontario ~ very, very hard but mathematically possible. Give the Tories 10 safe seats in "Old Canada," then they need only 159 of the 225 in "New Canada," say 25 in BC, 32 in AB, 13 in SK, 11 in MB and 78 in ON; they currently have 21 in BC, 27 in AB, 13 in SK, 11 in MB and 73 in ON so the required gains are 4 of 8 new seats in BC, 5 of the 6 new seats in AB, no changes in SK and in MB and just 5 of the 15 new seats in ON. That result is clearly attainable - make it a bit easier and give the Tories 15 of the 113 seats in "Old Canada" and it becomes quite achievable. That being the case, the question becomes: can the new Liberal leader displace Mulcair and the NDP and return to Stornoway, which is a reasonable "intermediate objective?"

How to beat Mulcair? Two choices:

1. Attack his left wing/social democrat policies as being bad for Canada ~ this will not appeal to Quebec voters so the "intermediate objective" is unlikely to be attained; or

2. Go father left than the NDP and appeal to Quebec nationalism ~ this will not appeal to "New Canada," making the "final objective" (24 Sussex Drive in 2019) harder to achieve.

Rock, meet Hard Place.

Is your assessment based on the addition of more seats?
Years ago, fairy tales all began with, "Once upon a time." Now we know they all began with, "If I'm elected."

Carolyn Warner

Offline E.R. Campbell

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Re: Liberal Party of Canada Leadership
« Reply #45 on: September 30, 2012, 03:57:05 »
Yes.
It is ill that men should kill one another in seditions, tumults and wars; but it is worse to bring nations to such misery, weakness and baseness
as to have neither strength nor courage to contend for anything; to have nothing left worth defending and to give the name of peace to desolation.
Algernon Sidney in Discourses Concerning Government, (1698)
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Offline E.R. Campbell

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Re: Liberal Party of Canada Leadership
« Reply #46 on: September 30, 2012, 06:55:07 »
The Toronto Sun offers us their editorial cartoonist's look into the future:


http://storage.canoe.ca/v1/dynamic_resize/sws_path/suns-prod-images/1297317724630_COMICS.jpg?quality=80&stmp=1348960837169&size=650x
Reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act
from the Toronto Sun
It is ill that men should kill one another in seditions, tumults and wars; but it is worse to bring nations to such misery, weakness and baseness
as to have neither strength nor courage to contend for anything; to have nothing left worth defending and to give the name of peace to desolation.
Algernon Sidney in Discourses Concerning Government, (1698)
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Offline ballz

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Re: Liberal Party of Canada Leadership
« Reply #47 on: September 30, 2012, 13:07:29 »

I don't agree with any of your points.

First: the Stephen Harper Conservatives are occupying the "right on economics" and staking out the "centre" on social issues.

Contrary to the current theme in Canada and the US, political parties can agree on certain things. I just don't see why the Liberals have to push further left on economics when its clear Canadians are feeling pretty right-wing about economics right now.


Second: many, many people in Canada are "on board" with the Tory social policies. But, most Canadians are not left or progressive on social issues; they are looking for the "centre" that the Conservatives are trying to define. There is, certainly, a progressive wing but it already belongs to the NDP. There are, broadly, two kinds of social conservatives in Canada: the religious right which is, largely in rural Canada and which does have some choices but, broadly, supports the Conservatives; and the New Canadians who have some quite conservative values on issues which do not, in most ways, coincide, at all, with the religious right. They appear, to me, to have moved into the Conservative camp. The social battleground is the "centre."

Perhaps I shouldn't have said left, I should have said "Left of where the Conservatives are." I think the "centre" that the Conservatives are trying to define is actually a shade to right of where the actual centre amongst the population is. This is where I think the Liberals could do themselves some good. Similar right-wing fiscal policy which is already proven to resonate with the Canadians, but more left of the Conservatives social policies, where the centre actually is.

Third: the reason Prime Minister Harper focuses "everything" on the economy is because it is the ONLY issue that really matters right now; to focus his and his party's attention anywhere else would be irresponsible.

While I agree that the economy is the biggest issue right now, if the PM Harper and the Conservatives felt that focussing everybody's attention on a certain social issue was to their advantage, then the would also give plenty of limelight to those issues, aka the LGR and "Tough-on-Crime," things that they knew would resonate with Canadians.

economics, as Mr. Campbell notes, is the only key issue of any real value, WAS the only issue of any value during the last several elections, and will continue to be the only issue of value. At the end people vote with the wallets unless times are VERY good

Of course, but what if two parties had very similar economic policies that you agreed with? How would you decide between the two?
Many persons have a wrong idea of what constitutes true happiness. It is not attained through self-gratification, but through fidelity to a worthy purpose.
- Helen Keller

Offline bridges

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Re: Liberal Party of Canada Leadership
« Reply #48 on: October 01, 2012, 07:50:54 »
I have to agree with ballz - my sense is that there's little appetite for the socially conservative policies that you see coming out from time to time, from the CPC.  Now if only there were a socially progressive and fiscally conservative party...  ;)

Quote
"It helped him beat the heavily favoured Senator Patrick Brazeau in a charity boxing match this year."
Getting rather tired of hearing about that boxing match!  It's getting to be the equivalent of dad's pirouette behind Her Majesty.  I hope the authors are not seriously suggesting that it's relevant to this leadership campaign.
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Online Remius

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Re: Liberal Party of Canada Leadership
« Reply #49 on: October 01, 2012, 12:38:55 »
I have to agree with ballz - my sense is that there's little appetite for the socially conservative policies that you see coming out from time to time, from the CPC.  Now if only there were a socially progressive and fiscally conservative party...  ;)
 

I'm not so sure about that.  Immigration reforms, as an example are being lauded by most as being a step in the right direction.  EI reforms, while not popular in some circles is another example of social policies where I think they hit the mark.
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